Canadian Hiring Index Reaches Three-Year Low: New Brunswick Faces Tight Labour Market and Sluggish Recovery

The Canadian labour market has hit a significant bump as the Canadian Hiring Index (CHI) reached its lowest point in three years, with provinces like New Brunswick and cities such as Moncton seeing particularly sluggish activity. Despite recent interest rate cuts, the market remains in a delicate state, and businesses across Canada are cautiously waiting for signs of recovery. 

Labour Market Tightness in New Brunswick and Moncton 

In July 2024, the hiring index for New Brunswick was at 109.6, showing moderate activity. However, Moncton’s index dropped to 87.8, which is much lower than the provincial and national averages. This signals a particularly tough job market in Moncton. 

A key issue is the imbalance between the number of job openings and the number of people seeking work. In New Brunswick, the ratio of job postings to unemployment is 0.18, meaning there are more people looking for jobs than there are jobs available. This creates a "tight labour market," where companies are not in a position to expand their workforce rapidly. 

Mismatch Between Job Openings and Unemployment 

Across Canada, there's been a growing gap between job vacancies and unemployment. While New Brunswick has seen a slight recovery in its hiring index, it hasn’t led to significant job creation in key industries. Moncton, in particular, is facing an even bigger challenge, with businesses reluctant to open new roles due to economic uncertainty. 

One reason for this is that New Brunswick’s labour force has grown, meaning there are more people looking for jobs. But businesses aren’t hiring quickly enough to keep up with this growth. As a result, wages and job quality have been affected, making it harder for job seekers to find stable, well-paying jobs. 

Industry-Specific Trends 

• Healthcare: The hiring index for healthcare-related jobs has cooled since its peak in 2021-2022, showing that demand has decreased as the labour supply stabilizes. 

• Construction and Trades: These sectors have seen a significant decline, reflecting a slowdown in the housing market and fewer large-scale projects. 

• Sales and Service: This sector has remained fairly flat, with little change in hiring activity, reflecting a slow and uncertain recovery. 

• Business, Finance, and Administration: These sectors have shown slow but steady growth, as companies wait for better economic conditions. 

• Manufacturing: The hiring index in manufacturing is particularly low, standing at 66.86 in July 2024, indicating a slow recovery. 

• Professional Services: This sector, which includes consulting, engineering, legal, and research services, has seen a sharp drop in hiring, signaling increased caution among businesses. 

Interest Rate Cuts and Their Impact on Hiring 

To help the economy, the Bank of Canada has lowered interest rates to 4.25%, making it cheaper for businesses to borrow money. However, this hasn’t led to a surge in hiring, especially in regions like New Brunswick. Businesses are still uncertain about the future and are hesitant to expand their workforce, even though borrowing costs are now lower. 

Sectors that were booming before, such as construction and healthcare, have slowed down in terms of job postings, as companies wait for more economic stability before making big hiring decisions. 

What Can Be Done to Improve the Hiring Index? 

To turn things around and boost job creation in New Brunswick, several steps can be taken:  

1. Boosting Labour Market Demand: While interest rate cuts help reduce borrowing costs, they must be coupled with incentives for businesses to hire more aggressively. Tax breaks or subsidies for companies hiring in critical sectors such as technology, healthcare, and construction can help spur job growth. 

2. Targeted Investments: Both the public and private sectors can invest in areas like infrastructure, healthcare, and green energy to create new jobs. These investments could provide a much-needed boost to hiring in New Brunswick. 

3. Encouraging Innovation: By investing in the digital economy and technologies like AI and automation, New Brunswick can create higher-paying jobs and attract talent. This could help reverse the current trend of slow job creation and economic stagnation.  

Conclusion 

With the Canadian Hiring Index at a three-year low, provinces like New Brunswick are feeling the effects of a tight labour market and cautious hiring practices. While recent interest rate cuts have laid the groundwork for recovery, more aggressive measures are needed to boost hiring and stimulate economic growth. Without targeted investments and policies, the Canadian Hiring Index may continue to struggle in the coming months, leaving job seekers and businesses in a difficult position.