Immigration Dynamics in Atlantic Canada: A Tale of Progress and Retention Challenges
The recent publication by the Atlantic Economic Council sheds light on the evolving immigration landscape in Atlantic Canada, underscoring both progress and persistent challenges. As each province in the Atlantic region grapples with demographic shifts and labour market needs, immigration emerges as a crucial component of sustaining growth and vitality. However, while strides have been made in attracting immigrants, the issue of retention remains a significant hurdle, particularly in provinces like New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island.
Over the past decade, immigration to Atlantic Canada has surged, with the region experiencing a notable increase in annual arrivals. From approximately 7,000 immigrants per year in the early 2010s, the influx has risen sharply to an average of 30,000 immigrants annually in the last two years alone. Such growth is largely attributed to initiatives like the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) and the Atlantic Immigration Program (AIP), which have emerged as key drivers of immigration, accounting for over 50% of total immigration to the Atlantic region in 2023.
In 2021, one-year retention rates varied from 63% in Prince Edward Island and 74% in Newfoundland and Labrador to approximately 80% in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. Five-year retention rates range from 30% for Prince Edward Island to about 65% in Nova Scotia. The province of New Brunswick has shown improvement in its five-year retention rates, climbing from previous years, but it still trails behind national averages. Presently, New Brunswick retains approximately half (54.8%) of the immigrants it attracted in 2017 after five years, indicating room for enhancement compared to other provinces like Ontario, which boasts a staggering 94% retention rate.
Within New Brunswick, retention rates among immigrants in the Capital Region have seen fluctuations over the years, ranging from a peak of 89.2% in 2006 to a low of 74.3% in 2015. As of 2021, the Capital region retains 78.6% of immigrants after one year, displaying a steady but not drastic increase. Conversely, Western New Brunswick has experienced more variability in retention rates, with figures swinging between highs exceeding 85% and lows falling below 70%. The lowest retention rate recorded is 53.6% in 2021, indicating a significant challenge in retaining immigrants in this region. The trends in three-year retention rates follow a similar pattern to the one-year rates, with fluctuations observed in both regions. Western New Brunswick lags behind with a three-year retention rate of 56.5%, compared to the Capital Region's 68.4% for immigrants who arrived in 2019. Looking further ahead, immigrants who landed in 2017 demonstrate a five-year retention rate of 57.3% in the Capital Region and 58.3% in Western New Brunswick. In the span of a decade, both regions experienced a decline in retention rates, with Western New Brunswick maintaining higher rates than the Capital Region.
Economic integration is crucial for retention outcomes. While immigrants in Atlantic Canada show promising trends in employment and entrepreneurship, income differences persist. Median incomes for immigrants in the region fall below those of non-immigrants by approximately 6%, although recent trends suggest narrowing gaps, especially among economic immigrants admitted through programs like the PNP and AIP.
Geographic distribution also influences retention dynamics. While urban centres attract most immigrants, efforts to promote settlement in rural areas have shown promise. However, retention rates in rural regions remain a concern, with half of the region's counties experiencing immigration rates below 0.5% of their population.
Addressing retention challenges in Atlantic Canada demands a comprehensive approach. Access to essential services like affordable housing, healthcare, childcare, and education is vital for newcomer retention. In this context, organizations like Ignite are taking the lead in the Capital and Western Regions of New Brunswick. Through innovative approaches outlined in the regions' Workforce Development Strategies, Ignite aims to equip newcomers with the skills and tools necessary for their economic integration. The upcoming Attraction, Integration, and Retention (AIR) Strategy in the Capital Region seeks to incorporate best practices in community inclusion, fostering welcoming and inclusive communities that support immigrant success in Canada.
Introducing initiatives like the Connector Program further underscores efforts to facilitate newcomers' integration into the local job market and strengthen ties to the region. Additionally, through Local Immigration Partnerships (LIPs), Ignite collaborates with various stakeholders to comprehensively address newcomers' needs, fostering welcoming communities that support their success.
In conclusion, the dynamic immigration landscape in Atlantic Canada presents both opportunities and challenges for the region's growth and vitality. While initiatives like the Provincial Nominee Program and the Atlantic Immigration Program have fueled a surge in immigration, retention remains a critical issue, particularly in provinces like New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island. However, organizations like Ignite are at the forefront of addressing these challenges through innovative approaches and collaborative efforts. By focusing on economic integration, community inclusion, and comprehensive support, they are paving the way for inclusive communities that embrace diversity and thrive.
References:
Brannon, P., & Madsen, B. (2024). Immigration Trends in Atlantic Canada. Atlantic Immigration Tracker. Available at: https://atlanticeconomiccouncil.ca/page/immigrationtracker2024.
Post-Secondary Education, Training and Labour. (Primary source: NB-IRDT). (2024). Immigrant Retention Rates by Landing Year and Regional Service Commission.